Economic Correlation: Cyclical and Non-Cyclical Stocks

A rising tide might lift all boats, but the same cannot be said for the economy.

When the U.S. experiences robust economic growth, certain sectors of the stock market tend to rise while others hold steady or even decline by comparison. The stocks of companies that experience higher revenues are typically categorized as cyclical. In other words, their good fortune rests mainly on consumers being gainfully employed and having ample discretionary income with which to buy more goods and services.

Take, for example, auto manufacturers. Sales typically increase when more people can afford to buy a new car. But that’s not all the time, because the economy is cyclical – it ebbs and flows over time. Therefore, companies that produce non-essential products – sometimes referred to as consumer discretionary goods and services – tend to flourish during economic cycles of strength and rising GDP. That is why they are called cyclical stocks.

But when the economic future is in decline or at least uncertain, people tend to delay buying non-essential items like a new car. When the economy really takes a nosedive, more consumers are affected, they buy less stuff, manufacturing takes a hit and companies start laying off their workforce.

Despite these unfortunate circumstances, people still have to eat. They buy essential items, such as food and toothpaste and toilet paper. These are considered consumer staples, and the stocks of companies that produce these types of goods are defined as non-cyclical stocks. That’s because those companies are expected to continue earning revenues regardless of economic cycles. Non-cyclical industries include food and beverage, tobacco, household and personal products.

Another non-cyclical sector is utilities. Utilities are a little bit different because people tend to purchase relatively the same amount of utility service – with exceptions for extreme weather or making slight thermostat adjustments to save money – whether the economy is robust or in a downward spiral. Because of this, utility companies are considered a very stable business model.

For investors, that means they are well-established, long-term performers and usually pay out high dividends. Not only are utility stocks a good option for retirees seeking income to supplement their Social Security benefits, but they offer a safe haven for investors to relocate assets during periods of economic decline.

In light of recent cautions by economists predicting a recession in 2020, this could be a good time to review your portfolio from the perspective of cyclical versus non-cyclical holdings. It doesn’t mean you need to sell completely out of your stock allocation; perhaps just temper your holdings to equities that tend to perform reliably regardless of the economy. In addition to consumer staples and utilities, consider companies that specialize in national defense, waste management, data processing and payments.

Also be aware that the past three decades have boasted several of the longest running economic expansions in U.S. history (1991 to 2001; 2001 to early 2007; 2009 through 2019). What this tells us is that U.S. economic growth cycles appear to be lengthening while declines are relatively shorter and followed up with impressive recovery periods.

So, take heart. If you decide to transfer some of your assets to less flashy, non-cyclical securities, you might not have to leave them there for long. However, it’s always a good idea to maintain a diversified portfolio so you don’t have to make adjustments based on economic cycles. And as always, consult an investment professional to help you make these important decisions.

Posted in Blog, Financial Planning |

How Will Oil Prices Fare in 2020 With Global Events?

When it comes to 2020 and energy prices, the world’s energy market will face many known and unknown variables. How and what types of events that will ultimately play out are unknown but, according to industry and government experts, there are some variables that are projected to lead to lower global prices overall.

Based on a Dec. 10 short-term energy outlook publication from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), there will be a mix of pushes and pulls on the price of crude oil and associated refining products. Market prices in 2020 for Brent crude oil is expected to average around $61, compared to 2019’s $64 average price per barrel. Looking at West Texas Intermediate (WTI) quotes, the EIA sees this type of crude settling, on average, at about $5.50 per barrel lower than Brent crude oil in 2020. The EIA bases its lowered price forecast on greater supplies of oil globally, especially in the first half of 2020. 

The agency’s data shows that in September 2019, America exported more than 90,000 net barrels per day of products from and crude oil itself. This is coupled with domestic export projections of 570,000 net barrels per day in 2020, in contrast to average net imports of 490,000 barrels per day in 2019.

According to EIA’s projections, U.S. crude oil production will grow by 900,000 barrels per day in 2020, compared to 2019’s production, resulting in 13.2 million barrels of daily production in 2020. This growth is compared to 2019’s production gains of 1.3 million barrels per day, and 2018’s 1.6 million barrel per day growth. The decrease in production, attributed by the EIA, is due to increased rig efficiency and well level productivity, despite the number of rigs dropping.

The EIA believes that OPEC and its “+” oil producing states will go beyond announced oil production cuts on Dec. 6, further cutting production through March 2020. The original cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day, announced in December 2018, have been modified to reducing production to 1.7 million barrels per day. The EIA expects the major global producers to keep production curtailed through all of 2020, due to increasing global oil inventories.

Fuel Standard’s Impact on Oil Prices

Through implementation of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Jan. 1, 2020, is ushering in new standards for allowable levels of sulfur in bunker fuel. This fuel will be required to contain no more than 0.5 percent sulfur content, compared to current allowable levels of 3.5 percent of the bunker oil’s weight. In reaction to the new standards, the EIA expects American refineries to increase operations by 3 percent in 2020 versus 2019’s production. It’s expected to increase wholesale margins in 2020 to 57 cents per gallon, on average, with it spiking to 61 cents per gallon. This is compared to 45 cents a gallon in 2019.

The Federal Reserve and Oil Prices

According to the Dec. 11, 2019, FOMC statement from The Federal Reserve, there was no modification to the federal funds rate. They based their decision on a yearly measure for inflation, excluding food and energy, along with signs of continued economic expansion, including healthy job creation and continued high rates of employment. However, the Fed indicated that if its goals of fostering a growing economy, maintaining a healthy job market and a 2 percent inflation target fall short, it will take appropriate action to keep supporting economic expansion. Depending on the Fed’s action to lower, increase or maintain its rates, the price of oil would feel the impacts.

While there’s no telling how fiscal policy and geopolitical events will play out in 2020, it looks like the price of oil will head south.

Posted in Blog, Stock Market News |

How to Calculate and Analyze Return on Equity

When it comes to evaluating a business, especially one that is publicly traded, determining its return on equity (ROE) is one way to see how it’s performing.

What is Return on Equity?

Return on equity is a ratio that gives investors insight into how effectively the company’s management team is taking care of the shareholders’ financial investments in the company. The greater the ROE percentage, the better the business’ management staff is at making income and creating growth from shareholders’ investments.  

How ROE is Determined

In order to calculate ROE, a company’s net income is divided by shareholder equity. To arrive at net income, businesses account for the cost of doing business, which includes the cost of goods sold, sales, operating and general expenses, interest, tax payments, etc. and then subtracts these costs of doing business from all sales. Similarly, the free cash flow figure can be substituted in place of net income.

There are some caveats when it comes to calculating net income. It is determined prior to paying out dividends to common shareholders, but loan interest and preferred shareholder dividend obligations must be met before starting this calculation.

The other part of the equation is the shareholder equity or stockholders’ equity. One definition is to subtract existing liabilities from a business’ assets, and what remains is what owners of a corporation or its shareholders would be able to claim as their equity in the company. Whether it’s done year over year or quarter over quarter, traders and investors can see how well a company performs over different time periods.

Return on equity is also able to be determined if a business’ net income and equity are in the black. The net income is found on the income statement – the ledger of the company’s financial transactions. Shareholders’ equity is found on the balance sheet – which details the business’ assets and financial obligations.

Analyzing a Business’ ROE

Another consideration that industry experts recommend to determine if a company’s ROE is poor or excellent is to see how it compares to the S&P 500 Index’s performance. With the historical rate of return being 10 percent annually over the past decade, and if a ROE is lower than 10 percent, it can give a good indication as to a particular business’ performance. However, a particular company’s ROE also needs to be compared against the industry’s ROE to see if the company is outperforming its sector.

For example, according to Yahoo Finance!, the ROE on Microsoft’s stock is 42.80 percent. This means that the management team running Microsoft is returning just shy of 43 cents for every dollar in shareholders’ equity. Compared to its industry (Software System & Application) ROE of 13.47percent – as cited by New York University’s Stern School of Business – Microsoft has a much higher ROE compared to the industry average. This is just one metric to measure the company’s performance, but it is an important one.

While looking at a company’s return on equity is not the end all or be all, it’s a good start to determine a company’s present and future financial health.

Sources

https://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/key-statistics?p=MSFT

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/roe.html

Posted in Blog, General Business News |

2020 Tax Brackets, Deductions, Plus More

Beginning on Jan. 1, 2020, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has new annual inflation adjustments for tax rates, brackets, deductions and retirement contribution limits. Note, the amounts below do not impact the tax filing you make in 2020 for the tax year 2019. These amounts apply to your 2020 taxes that you will file in 2021.

2020 Tax Rates and 2020 Tax Brackets

Below are the new 2020 tables for personal income tax rates. There are separate tables each for individuals, married filing jointly couples and surviving spouses, heads of household and married filing separate; all with seven tax brackets for 2020.

Tax Brackets & Rates – Individuals
Taxable Income Between Tax Due
$0 – $9,875 10%
$9,876 – $40,125 $988 plus 12% of the amount over $9,875
$40,126 – $85,525 $4,617 plus 22% of the amount over $40,125
$85,526 – $163,300 $14,605 plus 24% of the amount over $85,525
$163,301 – $207,350 $33,271 plus 32% of the amount over $163,300
$207,351 – $518,400 $47,367 plus 35% of the amount over $207,350
$518,400 and Over $156,234 plus 37% of the amount over $518,400

 

Tax Brackets & Rates – Married Filing Jointly and Surviving Spouses
Taxable Income Between Tax Due
$0 – $19,750 10%
$19,751 – $80,250 $1,975 plus 12% of the amount over $19,750
$80,251 – $171,050 $9,235 plus 22% of the amount over $80,250
$171,051 – $326,600 $29,211 plus 24% of the amount over $171,050
$326,601 – $414,700 $66,542 plus 32% of the amount over $326,600
$414,701 – $622,050 $94,734 plus 35% of the amount over $414,700
$622,050 and Over $167,306 plus 37% of the amount over $622,050

 

Tax Brackets & Rates – Heads of Households
Taxable Income Between Tax Due
$0 – $14,100 10%
$14,101 – $53,700 $1,410 plus 12% of the amount over $14,100
$53,701 – $85,500 $6,162 plus 22% of the amount over $53,700
$85,501 – $163,300 $13,158 plus 24% of the amount over $85,500
$163,301 – $207,350 $31,829 plus 32% of the amount over $163,300
$207,351 – $518,400 $45,925 plus 35% of the amount over $207,350
$518,400 and Over $154,792 plus 37% of the amount over $518,400

 

Tax Brackets & Rates – Separately
Taxable Income Between Tax Due
$0 – $9,875 10%
$9,876 – $40,125 $988 plus 12% of the amount over $9,875
$40,126 – $85,525 $4,617 plus 22% of the amount over $40,125
$85,526 – $163,300 $14,605 plus 24% of the amount over $85,525
$163,301 – $207,350 $33,271 plus 32% of the amount over $163,300
$207,351 – $311,025 $47,367 plus 35% of the amount over $207,350
$311,025 and Over $83,653 plus 37% of the amount over $311,025

 

Trusts and Estates have four brackets in 2020, each with different rates.

Tax Brackets & Rates – Trusts and Estates
Taxable Income Between Tax Due
$0 – $2,600 10%
$2,601 – $9,450 $260 plus 12% of the amount over $2,600
$9,451 – $12,950 $1,904 plus 35% of the amount over $9,450
$12,950 and Over $3,129 plus 37% of the amount over $12,950

 

Standard Deduction Amounts

Amounts for standard deductions see a slight increase from 2019 to 2020 based on indexing for inflation. Note that again as in 2019, there are no personal exemption amounts for 2020.

Standard Deductions
Filing Status Standard Deduction Amount
Single $12,400
Married Filing Jointly & Surviving Spouses $24,800
Married Filing Separately $12,400
Heads of Household $18,650

 

Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) Exemptions

Like the above, the AMT exemption amounts are increased based on adjustments for inflation, with the 2020 exemption amounts as follows.

 

Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) Exemptions
Filing Status Standard Deduction Amount
Individual $72,900
Married Filing Jointly & Surviving Spouses $113,400
Married Filing Separately $56,700
Trusts and Estates $25,400

 

Capital Gains Rates

Capital gains rates remain unchanged for 2020; however, the brackets for the rates are changing. Taxpayers will pay a maximum 15 percent rate unless their taxable income exceeds the 37 percent threshold (see the personal tax brackets and rates above for your individual situation). If a taxpayer hits this threshold, then their capital gains rate increases to 20 percent.

Itemized Deductions

Below are the 2020 details on the major itemized deductions many taxpayers take on Schedule A of their returns.

  • Medical Expenses – The floor remains unchanged from 2019 to 2020, so you can only deduct these expenses that exceed 10 percent of your AGI.
  • State and Local Taxes – The SALT deductions also remain unchanged at the federal level with a total limit of $10,000 ($5,000 if you are married filing separately).
  • Mortgage Deduction for Interest Expenses – The limit on mortgage interest also remains the same with the debt bearing the interest capped at $750k ($375k if you are married filing separately).

Retirement Account Contribution Limits

Finally, we look at the various retirement account contribution limits for 2020.

  • 401(k) – Annual contribution limits increase $500 to $19,500 for 2020
  • 401(k) Catch-Up – Employees age50 or older in these plans can contribute an additional $6,500 (on top of the $19,500 above for a total of $26,000) for 2020. This $500 increase in the catch-up provision is the first increase in the catch-up since 2015.
  • SEP IRAs and Solo 401(k)s – Self-employed and small business owners, can save an additional $1,000 in their SEP IRA or a solo 401(k) plan, with limits increasing from $56,000 in 2019 to $57,000 in 2020.
  • The SIMPLE – SIMPLE retirement accounts see a $500 increase in contribution limits, rising from $13,000 in 2019 to $13,500 in 2020.
  • Individual Retirement Accounts – There are no changes here for IRA contributions in 2020, with the cap at $6,000 for 2020 and the same catch-up contribution limit of $1,000.

Conclusion

There are no dramatic changes in the rates, brackets, deductions or retirement account contribution limits that the vast majority taxpayers tend to encounter for 2020 versus 2019. Most changes are simply adjustments for inflation. Enjoy the stability – as history has shown, it likely won’t last long.

Posted in Blog, Tax and Financial News |

Hanging Flags, Awarding Geniuses, Supporting Hong Kong Protestors and Criminalizing Animal Cruelty

National POW/MIA Flag Act (S 693) – This bill amended title 36 of the United States Code to require that the POW/MIA flag be displayed on all days that the flag of the United States is displayed on certain federal properties. Previously, the POW/MIA flag was displayed only on Armed Forces Day, Memorial Day, Flag Day, Independence Day, National POW/MIA Recognition Day and Veterans Day. The legislation was introduced by Sen. Elizbeth Warren (D-MA) on March 7. It was passed in the Senate on May 2, passed in the House on Oct. 22 and signed into law by the president on Nov. 7.

Hidden Figures Congressional Gold Medal Act (HR 1396) – This legislation awards Congressional Gold Medals to Katherine Johnson and Dr. Christine Darden, and posthumously to Dorothy Vaughan and Mary Jackson, as well as all of the women who contributed to the success of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration during the Space Race. The legislation was sponsored by Rep. Eddie Johnson (D-TX). It was introduced on Feb. 27, passed in the House on Sept. 19, in the Senate on Oct. 17 and then signed into law by the president on Nov. 8.

Rebuilding Small Businesses After Disasters Act (S 862) – Introduced on March 25 by Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA), this bill makes permanent the increased collateral requirements for major-disaster loans issued by the Small Business Administration. It passed the Senate on Aug. 1, the House on Nov. 20, and is currently awaiting signature by the president to enact into law.

Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019 (S 1838) – In response to the millions of Hong Kong citizens who have protested and demonstrated for government reform since last June, this bill authorizes three actions. 1) Requires the State Department to recertify Hong Kong’s autonomous status each year in order to continue receiving special treatment by the United States; 2) mandates the U.S. government identify anyone involved in abductions or extraditions of Hong Kong protesters or citizens to mainland China, plus freezes any U.S.-based assets and denies them entry into the United States; and 3) clarifies under federal law that no one should be denied a visa to the United States on the basis of participating in Hong Kong protests. The bill was introduced on June 13 by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and passed both Houses of Congress in November. It is currently with the president, who may sign or veto the bill.

A bill to prohibit the commercial export of covered munitions items to the Hong Kong Police Force (S 2710) – This legislation prohibits the issuance of licenses to export certain munition items to the Hong Kong Police Force and the Hong Kong Auxiliary Police Force, such as tear gas, rubber bullets and handcuffs. The bill does allow for the president to make an exception upon certifying to Congress how such exports would be advantageous to U.S. national interests and foreign policy goals. This prohibition would expire one year after enactment. The bill was introduced on Oct. 24 by Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and passed in Congress on Nov. 20. It is currently awaiting signature by the president.

Preventing Animal Cruelty and Torture Act or the PACT Act (HR 724) – This bill expands criminal provisions with respect to animal crushing (torture by stepping on an animal). It subjects violators to criminal prosecution for intentionally crushing an animal, or knowingly creating or distributing an animal crush video using interstate commerce. Criminal penalties include a fine, a prison term of up to seven years, or both. The bill was introduced by Rep. Theodore Deutch (D-FL) on Jan. 23, passed the two Houses of Congress in October and November, and is currently awaiting to be signed into law.

Posted in Blog, Congress at Work |

What is Splinternet and Why You Should Care

Eric Schmidt, former Google CEO, made a prediction in September 2018 that the internet will split in two – one part being led by China and the other by the United States. The reasoning behind this involves China’s active monitoring of all internet activities, as well as technological products and services from the country. Other reasons include a different leadership regime, controls and censorship.

Although it’s just speculation, the splinternet phenomenon has been around since the 1990s. Also known as cyber-balkanization, the concept is slowly taking root as governments seek to fence off their internet to create national internets.

How Realistic is Splinternet?

The United States has maintained dominance over the internet since its inception and going public. But in the modern digital landscape, rules and regulations are expected to curve the global internet into smaller networks. The idea is being driven by nationalism as well as concerns surrounding digital colonization and privacy issues.

China is one country known to be taking steps to compartmentalize the internet through its Great Firewall. Other countries that have taken steps to control domestic access to the internet include Russia and Iran. Europe is also taking steps toward reducing U.S. dominance by increasing regulations that require data localization. They have facilitates this with the 2018 introduction of General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).

In the United States, there is a drive to increase internet fragmentation to reduce the domination of large companies. This is because of the need to increase personal data protection and reduce data control by large companies. With the world becoming more global, we continue to see cases of large companies like Facebook or Apple having more influence as well as centralized power.

Though a small fraction of the internet interactions, this provides a good example of the splintering. With such fragmentation of the internet increasing, it’s bound to have an effect on economic interests.

How a Split Internet Would Affect Businesses

Data has become a critical resource, from influencing purchasing decisions, behavior dynamics, health and other aspects. But with the changing internet landscape, businesses could be affected in one way or another. Businesses have had an easy time operating in a standardized web. But with the unity of the internet shattered, they would have to adjust their planning and metrics to fit into the new environment. For instance, due to China’s domestic internet control, it’s impossible for some companies in the United States to carry out business operations in China.

This situation presents a challenge for businesses – and especially those whose operations are purely internet based. Increased regulation means disruption of operations.

For small companies expanding to other countries, it would be difficult due to the overhead costs of compliance to various regional regulations. As a business, failing to comply with the laws of a different region would subject it to hefty fines.

Be Prepared

Whether this is going to be a reality or not, the fact is there are big changes happening on the internet. The days of an open internet are dwindling with different countries and companies erecting digital walls on the internet every other day.

Unless we have a new set of global rules that enhance openness and public interest, then businesses and consumers will have to navigate complex laws and regulations that will not only affect the economy, but also disrupt seamless communication.

Since data today plays a big role in the digital economy, businesses can’t afford to ignore the possibility of a splinternet. As a business owner, you need to stay steps ahead as it would be a challenge connecting with your customers when caught up in the changes.

Businesses need to know how to follow consumers to new environments – and this could mean a bigger budget is required for development and testing different markets. Given that technological changes happen gradually, it’s advisable to keep tabs on tech trends and adjust accordingly. 

Posted in Blog, What's New in Technology |

Practicing Gratitude: A Look Back at 2019

It may be hard to believe, but the end of the year is upon us. During this time, many of us might reflect on the year and tally up the good and the bad, the pros and the cons of the past 12 months. In a society that focuses on success and getting ahead, probably the most common thing to do is zero in on what you didn’t accomplish, or what went wrong. But science tells us that if you’re smart, you’ll look back with gratitude. And the best news is: it’s good for our health.

Gratitude Changes Your Brain – For the Better

When you give thanks for positive things in your life and show appreciation, it literally changes the structure of your brain, according to UCLA’s Mindfulness Awareness Research Center. It keeps the gray matter functioning and causes synchronized activation in multiple brain regions, lighting up parts of the brain’s reward pathways and the hypothalamus. It’s kind of like an anti-depressant: it boosts neurotransmitter serotonin and causes the brain stem to produce dopamine, a chemical that mediates pleasure in the brain. In short, thinking about what you’re grateful for is kind of like free therapy.

Make a List of Your Successes

So now that you know how gratitude works, make a list of what you’ve accomplished this year. It doesn’t have to be big and dramatic; for instance: you ate at home more often. You decided to recycle. You drank more water. However, if you got a promotion and raise, by all means write it down and feel good about it. Besides, there’s more that happens: when you’re feeling grateful, you generate higher levels of activity in your hypothalamus, the area which controls a large array of essential body functions, like eating, drinking and sleeping. According to the National Institute of Health (NIH), this activity prompts you to exercise more, get better sleep and, best of all, decreases depression and bodily aches and pains. How’s that for some motivation to put pen to paper?

Keep a Journal for Next Year

As you can see, being grateful is beneficial, both mentally and physically. So why not keep a journal for the upcoming year? It doesn’t have to be fancy. Granted, a journal helps organize your thoughts and can be your go-to source should you start feeling down. But practicing gratitude can be as simple as jotting down your thoughts on a sticky note and posting it on your mirror. Another way to do this is to pick a gratitude buddy. When you think of something you’re thankful for, text or email a friend. Don’t worry about it sounding right, just do it! Chances are, it’ll not only make you feel better, it might brighten your friend’s day, too.

Just Look for Positive Things

According to Dr. Alex Korb in his book “Upward Spiral,” the simple act of seeking things to be grateful for has as much if not more benefit than the things you are actually grateful for. Korb says that the search “forces you to focus on the positive aspects of your life. This simple act increases serotonin production in the anterior cingulate cortex.” This area of the brain not only regulates blood pressure and heart rate, it’s also responsible for decision making and evaluation processes. Serotonin is good stuff: it’s known as the happy chemical. See how good this gratitude thing is?

So, in the coming year, if you start feeling blue and negative, here are some quick remedies:

  1. Look in the mirror and name five things you like about yourself.
  2. Write someone a thank you note.
  3. When something bad happens, think of something good that’s happened.
  4. Give someone a compliment. The act of giving is soul-nourishing: to give is to receive.

Here’s to looking back and feeling good, then moving forward with positive vibes!

Sources

https://thriveglobal.com/stories/how-gratitude-actually-changes-your-brain-and-is-good-for-business/

https://www.news-medical.net/health/Dopamine-Functions.aspx

http://ebooksdownloadfreeed.blogspot.com/2016/04/the-upward-spiral-pdf-free-download.html

https://www.alleydog.com/glossary/definition.php?term=Anterior+Cingulate+Cortex

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/kc/serotonin-facts-232248

Posted in Blog, Tip of the Month |

Gross Domestic Product: A Primer

The economic indicator known as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the dollar value of all purchased goods and services over the course of one year. It is comprised of purchases from all private and public consumption, including for profit, nonprofit and government sectors.

There are four components that are added to calculate the GDP:

  • Consumer spending
  • Government spending
  • Investment spending (this includes business, inventory, residential construction and public investment),   Net exports, meaning the value of goods exported minus the value of goods imported

The government calculates and publishes the GDP rate on a quarterly basis and for the entire year.

What Affects GDP?

There are different ways GDP is measured. For example, nominal GDP refers to a straight calculation of raw data, while real GDP adjusts the calculation to include the impact of inflation.

When inflation increases, the GDP tends to rise; when prices drop, so does the GDP. Be aware that this adjustment can happen even when there is no change in the quantity of goods and services produced in the United States during that time frame.

A key component of the GDP calculation is net exports. This number rises when the country sells more goods and services to foreign countries than it buys from them. A trade surplus means the United States sells more than it purchases, which is a strong contributor to GDP. When the United States buys more foreign goods than it sells, this creates a trade deficit, which is a negative weight in the GDP calculation.

GDP also reflects demand. The dollar output of certain sectors and industries rises and falls based on the popularity of their products and services. For example, when a new product is well received, then those sales increase that sector’s contribution to the GDP. This is a helpful measure because it enables companies to make better research and development decisions based on recent success. The same is true when a new product, or even an upgrade to a new product, does not increase sales.

What Does GDP Indicate?

The GDP is the most common, broad-based measure used to monitor the country’s economic progress. When it is on the rise, the economy is considered to be growing. When the GDP rate drops – even if it remains in positive territory – the economy is viewed as contracting. If it continues to slip quarter after quarter, it is an indicator that the economy might be in trouble and the Federal Reserve or Congress could consider altering monetary (interest rates) or fiscal (taxes and government spending) policy to inject cash into the nation’s financial system.

Technically, economists define a recession as a prolonged period of economic decline, often precipitated by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

This economic yardstick also is used to indicate a country’s general standard of living. The better a country is able to produce the goods and services that its residents and businesses use, the more that capital is infused back into the country. Therefore, higher GDP levels indicate a more prosperous country and relatively higher standard of living among its residents.

The GDP doesn’t just gauge domestic economic health, it serves as a comparison measure to other countries. This is particularly important during periods of growth and decline, when the United States can track how well it is responding to global economic factors relative to other countries.

Current Trendline

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, first quarter real GDP closed at 3.1 percent. In the second quarter, real GDP fell to 2.0 percent. The advanced assessment for the third quarter of 2019 is 1.9 percent.

 

Posted in Blog, Financial Planning |

What Would a Phase One Deal with China Encompass?

The so-called phase one of a trade deal with China is expected to contain a provision for $40 billion to $50 billion in purchases of American agricultural products by China, according to an October news release from U.S. Sen. John Hoeven (D-ND) With ongoing discussions surrounding the US-Sino trade talks, there are rumors for such a partial trade deal. But how has the recent past impacted both countries’ economies and a mutual desire for better trade deals?

While not directly related but announced during a similar time frame, a November press release from the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced Chinese acknowledgment and acceptance of American poultry exports. This stated that China will now accept $1 billion in American poultry and related poultry products, effectively reversing China’s ban.

After a December 2014 avian influenza outbreak, China banned US poultry in January 2015. America exported more than half a billion dollars of poultry to China in 2013, and there has been much interest in restarting exports to China since August 2017. With the USTR citing U.S. poultry exports of $4.3 billion in 2018, this will undoubtedly ensure America maintains its position as the globe’s second biggest poultry exporter.

According to a late October press release from the USTR, there will be a 30-day comment period in November to garner public opinion on continuing tariff exemptions on certain Chinese goods, worth approximately $34 billion. The items currently exempt are set to reverse exclusion on Dec. 28. Additionally, as part of phase one discussions, the United States is expected to not implement tariffs scheduled to take effect on Dec. 15, along with rolling back existing tariffs in stages.

Trade War’s Impact

According to BNP Paribas Wealth Management, the trade impasse between the United States and China has had a measurable negative impact on the world’s economy. BNP cited a 1.2 percent point reduction in growth over the past 1.5 years.

However, the phase one deal is expected to include many provisions, such as $40 billion to $50 billion of US farm product exports to China, along with $16 billion to $20 billion of Boeing aircraft for commercial use to China.

Financial institutions outside of China will be able to establish insurance companies in mainland China, financed by ex-China investments, along with being able to hold shares in the newly created entities. Ex-China lending institutions will be able to create wholly owned banks and conduct business in the Yuan or Renminbi (RMB) currency throughout mainland China without explicit approval from Chinese officials.

These developments, according to the Chinese State Council and China Banking and Regulatory Commission and CNBC, are part of the ongoing discussions to determine how China will increase IP protection and the aforementioned agricultural purchases. Announced on Oct. 11, 2019, the China Securities Regulatory Commission will work on lifting limits on ownership ceilings for ex-China entities, specifically in mutual funds, securities and futures operating in China.

BNP also mentions expectations of Dec. 15, 2019, tariffs to not be implemented, along with expectations for existing tariffs to be relaxed or reduced. In addition to giving American farmers increased sales, this will provide China with more soybeans for domestic consumption, including an ability to help increase the number of the country’s pork livestock population through feedstock. If phase one is agreed to, it’s also expected to help the RMB appreciate. Based on recent data, the RMB has appreciated by three percent since September 2019.   

One noteworthy item that depends on a phase one deal being certified is the expectation that it will positively impact the global economy. The International Monetary Fund dropped its World Economic Outlook gross domestic product projection from 3.2 percent in July 2019, down to 3.0 percent, based on the current trade tensions.

Since there’s great hope for a phase one deal that will encourage mutual and global economic development, there’s confidence that both countries facing economic hardships will find a short-term resolution.

Posted in Blog, Stock Market News |

Furniture, Fixtures and Equipment – and Depreciation

Furniture, Fixtures and Equipment - and DepreciationWhen it comes to determining depreciation for Furniture, Fixtures and Equipment (FF&E), there are many considerations that exist for accountants and business owners.

Defining Furniture, Fixtures and Equipment

FF&E refers to expenses for business items that are not affixed to the building where that business operates. Real world examples of depreciable assets includes chairs, desks, phones, tables, cabinets, etc., which are used to perform business-related tasks, directly or indirectly. These types of items are associated with long-term use generally more than 12 months, according to the Internal Revenue Service.

Understanding How It Works

When it comes to accounting for the expense of the item, it can be depreciated equally and discreetly over its useful life. According to the IRS’ General Depreciation System (GDS), these office items such as safes, desks and files, are expected to have a seven-year life.

While there are different approaches to calculate depreciation, a common way to do so is through straight-line depreciation. This method is used by many organizations, including The Federal Reserve, and it works by starting with how much the item cost to acquire or its adjusted basis. From there, the item’s cost is reduced by the salvage value, or the asset’s value after its useful life. The resulting figure is divided by the number of months of the asset’s useful life. Once the asset has exhausted this amount of time, it remains on the books as its salvage value until it’s sold or removed from service.

Using the straight-line method, a company might find the monthly depreciation charge for a truck purchase like this. The company purchases a new truck for $40,000; assuming a 60-month useful life allowable by the IRS and a 20 percent salvage value, the formula would be as follows:

  1. $40,000 – (20 percent x $40,000) / 60 months
  2. $40,000 – ($8,000) / 60 months
  3. $32,000 / 60 = $533.33 per month for monthly depreciation

Special Considerations

In addition to tangible property, some intangible property also can be depreciated under the right circumstances. Examples the IRS cites of this primarily intellectual property includes copyrights, patents and software. Conditions for depreciation of this type of intangible property include that it must be owned by the business owner, used within the business or for profit-related activities, have a useful life and can be used by the business for more than a year.

The IRS gives an example of an individual buying a patent for $5,100. Using the straight-line method, the IRS permits this type of non-section 197 intangible property to be depreciated under certain conditions. The owner then must reduce any salvage value from the non-section 197 intangible property’s adjusted basis and depreciate it over the patent’s useful life, prorating terms less than a year, if applicable.  

Eligible Intangible Property Example

Assume the individual bought a patent in May to be used starting June 1 of the same year. The patent was bought for $5,100, has a 17-year useful life and won’t have any salvage value.

The first year of depreciation must be prorated for six months, since it will be used from June to December of the first year. Taking these circumstances and rules from the IRS, the first year’s depreciation available is $150. Each subsequent year, the 16 remaining will be $300 each.

While there are many intricacies for depreciation, understanding how it applies to each business’ operations will help give a fair assessment of an equipment’s value.

Sources

https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p946.pdf

Posted in Blog, General Business News |